Westpac Sees No Change In Dec, Feb 2024 Live

The local bank sees no change at the Dec meeting. Feb next year is live, but on balance the bank sees the RBA holding steady, see below for more details.

Westpac: "The RBA revised up its near-term inflation forecast in November and delivered one of the “one to two” rate increases assumed in their forecasts. Not enough new information has come to hand since then to warrant delivering a second increase just yet. The monthly CPI indicator is volatile, but the October reading was a bit below expectations. The RBA is still ready to raise rates further if it sees further upside surprises on inflation. It has no tolerance for more delays in the return to the inflation target. So February is still live, but we don’t see them moving in December."

"By the time of the February meeting, the RBA will have the full December quarter inflation data as well as the September quarter national accounts and other key data. We reaffirm our view that the RBA Board would raise the cash rate at that meeting if it sees further upside surprises to inflation or fresh evidence suggesting that inflation will decline more slowly than it intends. If things play out broadly in line with their forecasts, though, further moves would be harder to justify. In that case, it would be likely that the RBA would hold the cash rate steady. Currently we believe this is the more likely outcome."