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What to watch (1/2)


Core fixed income markets hit highs either late in the European session or around 19:00GMT last night after rallying throughout yesterday's session. After moving off those highs in late NY trading, we have started to move higher again ahead of the European open.

  • At the time of writing, around 115bp of hikes are priced into US markets this year (down from around 135bp on Monday's close) with a 25bp March hike no longer fully priced. Markets now only price around 6bp of hikes for the ECB this year (a hike was fully priced Monday). For the BOE around 100bp of hikes are now priced this year, with a 25bp March hike pretty much still fully priced.
  • Against this backdrop, oil prices are continuing to see a substantial rally with WTI and Brent prices now both above $110/bbl (both were below $100/bbl ahead of yesterday's open).
  • Looking ahead we have Powell's testimony ahead of the House today (there was no text released last night, there is still a chance we get pre-release text ahead of the US market open today, for example around 13:30GMT). We are also due to hear from Fed's Evans, Bullard and ECB's Lane during European hours today.

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