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MARKET INSIGHT
  • Overnight there have been much larger swings in Treasuries from Friday's close than in Bunds. US 10-year yields are almost 4bp up from their close on Friday while 10-year Bund yields are down 0.3bp. Partly these relative moves are due to the much larger moves across the US curve than the German curve on Friday.
  • However, we have also seen Bund futures move more off their overnight lows as Europe has got into the office this morning. This has not been limited to Bunds but is also being seen in the Euribor strip. It appears European investors are more concerned about the implications for the Eurozone given the already high case numbers and that a number of countries were considered to be on the verge of joining Austria in renewed lockdowns.
  • Any comments from health officials on the severity of disease from Omicron, vaccine efficacy or transmissibility will be closely watched today.
  • Elsewhere, we also have German state and national first inflation prints and Spanish preliminary HICP this morning. These will be closely watched for their impact ahead of the ECB's decision next month on how to replace PEPP when it is due to end in March. The highlight of the US data calendar will be pending home sales.
  • Most scheduled ECB speakers are not due to discuss the economy while Fed speakers are mainly due after the European session has concluded.
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