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What to Watch: Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, Geopol Headlines

MARKET INSIGHT
Retail Sales headlines a flood of data this morning followed by Jan FOMC minutes this afternoon. Meanwhile, potential for gap moves over headlines on Russia/Ukraine developments keep markets on their toes.
  • On data at 0830ET:
    • Retail Sales Advance MoM (-1.9%, 2.0%); Ex Auto MoM (-2.3%, 1.0%); ex-Auto/Gas MoM (-2.5%, 1.0%)
  • Import Price Index MoM (-0.2%, 1.2%); YoY (10.4%, 9.9%)
  • At 0915ET:
    • Industrial Production MoM (-0.1%, 0.5%); Capacity Utilization (76.5%, 76.8%).
  • FOMC Minutes: Sell-side previews suggest fairly low expectations for big surprises, given that the January meeting was held before surprisingly strong payrolls and inflation data shifted the narrative in an even more hawkish direction.
    • Intense focus on any signposts of the FOMC's intended hiking pace, whether a 50bp hike is on the table, and any further discussion on balance sheet runoff (especially pace and potential for outright asset sales).
  • Geopolitical: Tues' cautious optimism over supposed partial Russia troop pull-back from Ukraine may be more smoke and mirrors as observers say there is little sign of withdrawal.
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