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What to Watch: Fed Speak, Geopol Risk, Supreme Court Confirm

MARKET INSIGHT

US FI markets weaker, lower half moderate overnight range on better volumes (TYM2 >430k) with Japan back from extended holiday weekend. Carry-over weakness in rates after Fed Chair Powell's hawkish message at NABE conf Monday (willingness to hike at every meeting to counter inflation), pricing in increased chance of 50bp hike at May 4 FOMC.

  • Equities firmer, SPX eminis near late overnight highs (+15.0 at 4467.25). Cross-market/carry-over support after China reiterates support for economy/markets.
  • Keeping wary eye on Russia/Ukraine headline risk. Peripherally, crude off overnight highs (WTI -.10 at 112.02) amid doubt of forming united front in banning Russia oil imports (Germany, Netherlands still reliant, can't cut off yet).
  • Limited morning data again, coming up at 1000ET (prior, est):
    • Richmond Fed Mfg. Index (1, 2)
  • Treasury auction: $34B 52W bills at 1130ET
  • Fed speakers:
    • NY Fed Williams BIS panel discussion, no text, moderated Q&A at 0910ET
    • SF Fed Daly Brookings Inst discussion at 1400ET
    • Cleveland Fed Mester on economy, mon-pol, text and Q&A at 1700ET
  • Pres Biden holds pre-travel prep-talk call at 1100ET w/ FR Pres Macron, GR Ch Scholz, IT PM Draghi, UK PM Johnson ahead Wed's trip to Europe, NATO summit Thu.
  • Unlikely to be market moving, but two day Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson starts today.
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