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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Markets have been mixed overnight and in early European trading with STIR markets generally moving up a couple of ticks. After yesterday's BOE decision and significant repricing of the SONIA strip, there will be attention paid to BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill's National Agency briefing at 12:15BST and Tenreyro's speech at 16:00BST. Tenreyro is speaking on climate change but there is a Q&A and she is considered one of the two MPC members who did not sign up to the guidance that more moderate hikes may be needed.
  • The highlight of today's session will be the US employment report. Nonfarm paryolls are expected to have risen by 380k in April according to the Bloomberg survey median or 400k with the primary dealer median with relatively even dispersion. Average hourly earnings growth is seen unchanged at +0.4% M/M whist the unemployment rate is forecast to fall another tenth to joint pre-pandemic lows of 3.5%. Fresh on the tail of the FOMC, a high bar for non-50bp hikes has been set and there’s still another payrolls report on Jun 3 ahead of the next FOMC on Jun 15, but nuances remain. For the full MNI Payroll Preview click here. Canadian employment is also due today.
  • This morning we have the release of the Riksbank Minutes. These will be closely watched after the unanimous decision last week to raise the repo rate by 25bp, slow reinvestments and substantial upward revision to the repo rate path. In particular, attention will be paid to how much conviction the doves on the Executive Board had in the decision.
  • We will have a number of second tier releases across Europe this morning. We have already had German IP and we are due Spain industrial output and Italian retail sales.

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