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What to Watch: May Employment

MARKET INSIGHT
Tsys trading marginally weaker (30YY 3.0821%), curves flatter (2s10s -1.377 at 25.821) ahead May headline employment report. Light volumes (TYU2 <190k) with London out for Platinum Jubilee holiday.
  • Market reacted negatively to reports of Elon Musk email to Tesla execs: "pause all hiring worldwide" late Thu. Reuters reported Musk would like to cut 10% of Tesla's workforce due to a "super bad feeling" about the economy. Meanwhile, May car sales <13M annualized: "recessionary level" according to RBC analysts.
  • Headline economic data coming up at 0830:
    • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (428k, 325k)
    • Change in Private Payrolls (406k, 301k); Mfg (55k, 39k)
    • Unemployment Rate (3.5%, 3.5%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3%, 0.4%); YoY (5.5%, 5.2%)
    • Labor Force Participation Rate (62.2%, 62.3%); followed by:
    • S&P US Services PMI (53.5, 53.5); Composite PMI (53.8, 53.8) at 0945ET and
    • ISM Services Index (57.1, 56.5), 1000ET
  • Fed speak:
    • Fed VC Brainard on Comm Reinvestment Act, no text, Q&A, 1030ET
    • Cleveland Fed Mester, CNBC to discuss employment report, 1340ET
  • No US Tsys supply, auctions resume next week w/ $44B 3Y, $33B 10Y R/O, $19B 30Y R/O.

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