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MARKET INSIGHT
  • There is a relatively light calendar today with markets probably starting to look towards tomorrow's ECB decision. We published our ECB preview yesterday and note that while a 50bp hike in July is still a low probability, the risk is increasing. The probability of 50bp hikes in September or later is also increasing. Any language hinting at policy beyond September or at 50bp hikes is likely to be market moving tomorrow. Markets are now pricing a cumulative 26bp by July and 71bp by September (i.e. over an 80% probability is priced into the market of a 50bp hike by September. For the full MNI ECB Preview click here.
  • Data this morning has not been market moving and there are no key data points due later (the remaining highlights being the final print of Q1 Eurozone GDP and US wholesale inventories). And there are no Fed/ECB/BOE speakers scheduled.

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