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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • The focus this morning will be on the PMI manufacturing prints that we have not seen preliminary prints for (most notably Spain, Italy and Norway) alongside any revisions (particularly lower) to the existing prints released on 22 July. We have already received the Swedish print.
  • The ISM manufacturing index, due for release at 15:00BST / 16:00CET will be even more closely watched, particularly some of the components such as new orders and employment that fell below 50 in June. And the priced paid component that is expected to fall for a fourth consecutive month.
  • Markets will also look ahead to later in the week with the BOE MPR and policy decision due Thursday (markets price in almost an 80% probability priced for 50bp with 25bp fully priced). Both the magnitude of the hike and the guidance will be in focus.
  • Friday will also see the US employment report released with markets currently fully pricing a 50bp September hike with around a 30% probability of 75bp priced. This means there is scope for rate expectations to move either way on the back of Friday's report.
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