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What to watch

  • The main event of the day will be the release of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report and policy decision. The MNI Markets team sees a subjective 70% probability of a 50bp hike today, with a 25bp hike if not. Inflation remains high, the PMIs have held up, other central banks have pivoted hawkishly and Bailey hinted towards a 50bp hike at his Mansion House speech.
  • In addition, we will receive an update regarding balance sheet policy. It is unclear how much detail we will receive this week with the MPC expected to hold a September confirmatory vote before beginning active gilt sales. See the full document including MNI Instant Answers and over 20 summaries of sell side views.
  • The decision, statement and MPR will be released at 12:00BST / 13:00CET with the press conference due to begin at 12:30BST / 13:30CET.
  • Elsewhere we have US trade balance and weekly jobless claims as well as Fed's Mester speaking.

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