MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: ECB Should Be Close To 2% In Next Quarters -Centeno

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI: US NOV IMPORT PRICES +0.1%

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • This morning's big event will be the Riksbank policy decision at 8:30BST / 9:30CET. We would be inclined to expect a 75bp rather than a 100bp hike but we think there is a good chance that the Riksbank decides to stop bond reinvestments in Q4-22. We have read through and summarized 14 sell side previews, with 12/14 looking for a 75bp hike (the remaining two look for a 100bp hike) while OIS markets price closer to 100bp. See the full MNI Riksbank Preview here.
  • Bund futures are already below yesterday's lows following continued reaction to this morning's record-high German PPI print. There is heavy day of supply ahead in the Eurozone with a Spain 20y and ESM 3-year syndication, Finland auction and Italian exchange auction but little else on the EZ data calendar today.
  • Markets will already have one eye on tomorrow's FOMC decision. Along with a 75bp hike at the September meeting, the FOMC will attempt to cement “higher for longer” rate pricing. With changes to the statement likely to be limited, immediate focus will be on the Dot Plot’s end-2022 median rate forecast and the 2023 “terminal” rate, for which sell-side expectations center on 3.9% and 4.2%, respectively. MNI sees a flatter Fed funds rate “Dot Plot” than consensus, though risks to the 2023 Dot lie to the upside of 4.1%. See the full MNI Fed Preview here.
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