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What to Watch: Headline Sep Jobs Report


Tsys trading softer/off recent overnight lows (30YY tapping 3.8034% high), moderate volumes (TYZ2<265k) as markets await employment report for September (+255k est vs. +315k prior).

  • Still inconclusive whether President Biden will make any post-data comments to the press as has occurred in past strong jobs reports. However, the White House did announce an open press gathering on the south lawn (1055ET) prior to Biden's departure for Joint Base Andrews at 1105ET en route to Hagerstown, Maryland.
  • Data line-up at 0830ET:
    • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (+315k, +260k)
    • Change in Private Payrolls (+308k, +275k)
    • Unemployment Rate (3.7%, 3.7%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3%, 0.3%); YoY (5.2%, 5.0%)
    • Labor Force Participation Rate (62.4%, 62.4%), followed by:
    • Wholesale Inventories MoM (1.3%, 1.3%), Trade Sales MoM (-1.4%, 0.5%) and Consumer Credit ($23.811B, $25.00B) at 1000ET
  • Fed speakers ahead:
    • NY Fed Williams moderated Q&A, no text at 1000ET
    • MN Fed Kashkari on agriculture, food and inflation, no text at 1100ET
    • Cleveland Fed Bostic on wealth gap, no text, Q&A at 1200ET

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