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OUTLOOK
  • The focus of the morning session will be on the flash PMI data from France, Germany, the Eurozone and the UK. Consensus expects relatively small deteriorations for all of these (although the US services PMI this afternoon is expected to tick higher).
  • We will also receive the FOMC Minutes later today. In line with recent Fedspeak, we expect some pushback against the notion that a step-down to 50bp is a prelude to a pause, let alone a pivot whilst there is likely some pushback on market pricing for cuts next year.
  • The UK Supreme Court is set to deliver a ruling on whether the Scottish Parliament is within its rights to call a second independence referendum without gaining permission from the UK government in Westminster beforehand. The ruling is expected at 09:45GMT. Our Political Risk team notes that broad expectations are for the Court to reject the Scottish government’s request, a decision that would not be a disaster for pro-independence First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, given that such a ruling could add fuel to the nationalist fire two years out from the next general election.
  • In terms of other data today we will receive US durable goods orders at 13:30GMT, new home sales and the final print of Michigan confidence.
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