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OUTLOOK

Today sees a packed calendar ahead of next week's central bank meetings.

  • The main event in Europe will be the announcement of early TLTRO repayments at 11:05GMT / 12:05CET. We noted on Wednesday that expectations centred on around E300-400bln - so slightly more than the E296bln of early repayments seen in November, that was at the low end of expectations. E1.8trn remains outstanding. A small repayment will probably have less impact as a number of analysts (and ECB members) are viewing the total repayments over November, December and January in aggregate, so a smaller repayment today would potentially just mean a larger January repayment. However a very large repayment today could be a more significant outcome for the market.
  • The other big events of the day will be the release of US PPI at 13:30 / 14:30CET and Michigan inflation expectations data at 15:00GMT / 16:00CET.
  • In terms of other data we have already seen a soft Norwegian inflation print and are due Spanish IP, the BOE inflation attitudes survey and US wholesale inventories.
  • The Belgian Debt Agency is due to announce its funding plans for 2023 this morning (no set time other than before noon CET) while the BOE will carry out a sales operation from its Financial Stability Portfolio with both long conventionals and linkers on offer today.
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