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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • We have already had the main data event of today with UK monthly activity data rebounding slightly more than expected. The rest of today's schedule is pretty light but it's a hugely busy week coming up with plenty to focus on.
  • Starting with the US, tomorrow will see the release of November CPI ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. The Fed is largely expected to hike by 50bp (with markets pricing 52bp) and the focus will instead be on plans for the future. The MNI Markets team expects the Dot Plot will signal a further 75bp of tigtening in 2023 to a terminal rate above 5%, see the full preview here. There will be an updated preview published later today including a summary of analyst views. Thursday will see retail sales and industrial production data in the US.
  • The ECB will announce its policy decision on Thursday with markets pricing 57bp but the MNI Markets team thinks its a closer decision between 50bp and 75bp than the market expects. For the full MNI ECB Preview click here.
  • It's a busy week in the UK, too, with labour market data due tomorrow, inflation data on Wednesday and the MPC policy decision on Thursday. The latter is widely expected to see a 50bp hike (markets price 55bp) with probably two dovish dissenters potentially looking for unchanged rates, and at least one member expected to continue to vote for a 75bp hike. A 75bp hike cannot be completely discounted at this point, particularly with some crucial data due ahead of the decision and with many of the swing members of the MPC having given little away about the magnitude of their hiking intentions.
  • In other G10 central banks, we have the SNB on Thursday who are expected to hike 50bp (but 75bp is possible) while the Norges Bank are expected to hike 25bp.
  • Against this backdrop there is also very cold weather over the UK and much of Europe - helping push natgas prices higher.
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