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OUTLOOK
  • Yesterday's 25bp hike from the Fed was accompanied by uncertainty over the future path for policy, with Powell noting that policy is tight and sating that the June decision would be data dependent (he clarified that no decision had yet been made on whether to pause or not). Compared to the levels seen around the European close, 10-year UST yields are around 10bp lower but Bund futures are little changed from that level, having reversed the overnight gains.
  • This indicates that we either might see a bit of a catch up in EGBs on the cash open this morning or it might be that market participants are wary of putting on positions ahead of today's ECB meeting. A 25bp hike is expected from the ECB today with the latest inflation and banking sector data diminishing the case for 50bp. Given the uncertain outlook, the ECB is unlikely to provide explicit forward guidance at this juncture, though will likely nod to further tightening being likely in the baseline scenario. There is potential for a TLTRO "bridge" operation to be announced Thursday; more surprising - but possible - would be a decision on APP runoff beyond June. For the full MNI ECB Preview click here.
  • Elsewhere today we will receive the final prints of Eurozone/UK services PMI prints as well as US productivity and weekly claims data. France and Spain will both hold auctions, as we noted above.
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