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What to Watch: Headline January Employment Data, Fed Exits Blackout

US TSYS
  • Focus on headline employment report for January (0830ET) - a potential test of Fed Chairman Powell’s higher bar to a March rate cut. Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls rising 185k, primary dealers see a median 205k.
  • All change from revisions: The establishment survey will be affected by annual benchmark revisions, new seasonal factors and updated estimates for the net birth/death model, whilst the household survey (e.g. unemployment rate) will be adjusted for new population controls.
  • Wrapping up this week's data: University of Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations at 1000ET, as well as Factory/Durables/Cap-Goods Orders.
  • The Federal Reserve is out of Blackout, no scheduled Fed speakers for today, but likely some pop-up comments if jobs data moves markets significantly.
  • Announced on X last night, Chairman Powell is scheduled to appear on 60 Minutes at 1900ET: "60 MINUTES correspondent Scott Pelley interviewed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in Washington, DC after the central bank announced its decision to hold interest rates steady. Pelley asked Mr. Powell about inflation risks and the economy, the timeline for cutting rates, the health of America’s banks, the impact of the nation’s deficit and more."

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