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What to Watch: January CPI

US TSYS
  • Modest overnight volumes continue with China still closed for Lunar New Year holidays, Tsys steady to mixed, curves flatter (2s10s -1.157 at -31.031) with 2s-5s mildly weaker.
  • Main focus on this morning's January CPI at 0830ET. Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in January with mild risk seen to the downside, for a very similar reading to December after Friday’s annual revisions.
  • There is a very wide range to analyst views for CPI supercore (from an admittedly small sample), but even the softest sees the three-month accelerate to 4.5% annualized.
  • No scheduled Fed speakers on the docket today
  • US Treasury auctions $80B 42D CMB at 1130ET.
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