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What to Watch: Jobs Gains and Policy Path

US TSYS
  • US fixed income markets trading broadly higher in the lead-up to Non-Farm Payrolls data covering February at 0830ET, +225k mean estimate compared to +517k prior. Dealer analyst opinions vary as to how low jobs gain would be to keep the Federal Reserve on target for a 50bps hike on March 22: approximately +200k +/- 10k.
  • That said, US rates have rebounded considerably since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell tempered Tuesday's hawkish tones at Wednesday's testimony to Congress, conceding NFP and CPI and PPI inflation metrics next week are "going to be important in our assessment," however, "we have not made any decision about the March meeting. We’re not on a preset path."
  • At the moment, there are no scheduled Fed-speakers today while the Federal Reserve enters media Blackout re: monetary policy at midnight ET.
  • Treasury yield curves continue to climb steeper as short end rates outperform:
  • Treasury June'23 2Y futures: TUM3 +9.125 at 101-30.38, 2Y yield falls to 4.7459% after breaching 5.08% earlier in the week; 2s10s yield curve has tapped -92.474 high overnight vs. -110.917 inverted low yesterday (1981 low).
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