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What to Watch: July CPI, Fed Speakers, 30Y Bond Auction

US TSYS
  • Main focus on CPI data for July (3.3% YoY est from 3.0% prior) at 0830ET in addition to weekly claims and average hourly/weekly earnings. Markets are eager for the next key inflation metric since last Fri's lower than expected (but still solid) job gain of +187k vs. +200k est. and stronger than expected AHE data (4.361% in Jul from 4.413% in Jun), that spurred a strong rally in underlying futures and softer rate hike projections through year end.
  • Regarding this morning's CPI, analysts see two conflicting (and familiar) drivers on the month: airfares (upside) and used cars (downside). • Some expect the Fed’s closely watched core services ex housing measures to firm from particularly weak flat or near flat readings in June but to still help the trend moderate.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers on tap: SF Fed Daly interview Yahoo Finance at 1100ET. On the close, the Atlanta Fed will release a recorded message from Pres Bostic at an employment event at 1500ET while Philly Fed Harker also makes comments at virtual event (no Q&A) at 1615ET.
  • Wrapping up the week's Treasury issuance, $75B 4W, $65B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET followed by $23B 30Y Bond auction (912810TT5) at 1300ET.
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