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What to Watch: Policy Sensitivity

US TSYS
Tsys trading weaker on heavy overnight volumes (TYH3>420k), carry-over from Thu's hawkish Fed comments from Mester and Bullard (don't count out 50bp hike if necessary) -- but sensitive to latest ECB Villeroy comments (ECB in restrictive territory, action after March "less urgent"), rebounding briefly, but back near midrange (30YY currently 3.9308$ vs. 3.9662% high).
  • Policy sensitivity puts focus on this morning's scheduled Fed speakers:
    • Richmond Fed Barkin discusses labor mkt, no text, Q&A at 0830ET
    • Fed Gov Bowman, moderated discussion banking conf at 0845ET
  • Likely less reaction to economic data at 0830ET:
    • Import Price Index MoM (0.4%, -0.1%), YoY (3.5%, 1.4%)
    • Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (0.8%, -0.3%)
    • Export Price Index MoM (-2.6%, -0.2%), YoY (5.0%, 2.8%)
    • Leading Index (-0.8%, -0.3%)
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