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When could the Budget be? (1/2)

UK FISCAL
  • We think that the most likely dates for a UK Budget are 30 October (or 6/13 November) with an outside chance that Reeves announces today a 18 September date.
  • The biggest constraint to when a Budget can be held is the 10 weeks notice the OBR must be given to begin producing forecasts (the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK's official independent forecaster of public finances). Given that a Budget is normally held on a Wednesday, if notice was given to the OBR today that would mean a Budget date of 18 September (the day before the MPC announces its policy decision).
  • However, from a political standpoint this would be seen as poor form. This would come in the middle of the party conference season (the Lib Dems conference is 14-17 September, Labour 22-25 September and Conservatives 29 September - 2 October). Moving these conferences around to accommodate a Budget would be a very unpopular political move.
  • Furthermore, benefits and pensions are based on the September CPI figures - which are not due for release until 16 October. The Low Pay Commission also uses the September CPI figures as an input into its recommendations for the minimum / National Living Wage - and usually reports to the government within a few weeks of the September CPI release.
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  • We think that the most likely dates for a UK Budget are 30 October (or 6/13 November) with an outside chance that Reeves announces today a 18 September date.
  • The biggest constraint to when a Budget can be held is the 10 weeks notice the OBR must be given to begin producing forecasts (the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK's official independent forecaster of public finances). Given that a Budget is normally held on a Wednesday, if notice was given to the OBR today that would mean a Budget date of 18 September (the day before the MPC announces its policy decision).
  • However, from a political standpoint this would be seen as poor form. This would come in the middle of the party conference season (the Lib Dems conference is 14-17 September, Labour 22-25 September and Conservatives 29 September - 2 October). Moving these conferences around to accommodate a Budget would be a very unpopular political move.
  • Furthermore, benefits and pensions are based on the September CPI figures - which are not due for release until 16 October. The Low Pay Commission also uses the September CPI figures as an input into its recommendations for the minimum / National Living Wage - and usually reports to the government within a few weeks of the September CPI release.