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Will PM Conte Seek Early Elections?

ITALY

Rumours swirling this morning about the prospect of an early election in Italy (see 0815GMT FI bullet) due to a story from Corriere Della Sera indicating that Prime Minsiter Giuseppe Conte could seek an early election following his gov'ts inability to secure an absolute majority in Tuesday's confidence vote in the Senate.

  • Conte has been given two weeks by President Sergio Mattarella to put together a majority gov't.
  • The broad expectation is that if a majority gov't cannot be secured the president will seek to put in place a technocratic gov't to govern until the worst effects of the pandemic have passed.
  • However, Corriere reporting that based on some hypothetical opinion polling, with Conte as PM candidate for the 5-Star Movement, Conte may be more inclined to seek early elections. Polls say M5S could garner around 20% with Conte as PM candidate compared to 14-16% support gained at present.
  • Still remains unlikely that the left could form a majority gov't after the election, with the right-wing bloc in a much stronger position to put together a gov't with Matteo Salvini's League, the Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia set to be in place to form a majority.
  • The junior coalition partner, the centre-left Democratic Party, does not seem inclined towards elections, while the president is also looking for Conte to form a majority gov't with support from minor parties or defecting senators.

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