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Williams Limits Hawkish Reaction To U.S. Retail Sales

STIR

The retail sales data initially allows the early hawkish Fed repricing to extend, threatening a clean break of last week’s extremes, before moderating.

  • Elsewhere, NY Fed President Williams notes that he doesn’t see recent inflation data as a turning point for Fed policy, with markets taking slower progress on inflation into account. He also pointed to his own expectations for rates to be cut this year, with a focus on real rates given the moderation in inflation. The latter round of comments may have limited the post-data reaction.
  • Full discounting of the first 25bp cut slipped to the November FOMC earlier today, with ~28bp of easing now priced over that horizon (vs. ~30bp pre-data).
  • ~40bp of cuts are priced through year end, little changed vs. pre-data levels.
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The retail sales data initially allows the early hawkish Fed repricing to extend, threatening a clean break of last week’s extremes, before moderating.

  • Elsewhere, NY Fed President Williams notes that he doesn’t see recent inflation data as a turning point for Fed policy, with markets taking slower progress on inflation into account. He also pointed to his own expectations for rates to be cut this year, with a focus on real rates given the moderation in inflation. The latter round of comments may have limited the post-data reaction.
  • Full discounting of the first 25bp cut slipped to the November FOMC earlier today, with ~28bp of easing now priced over that horizon (vs. ~30bp pre-data).
  • ~40bp of cuts are priced through year end, little changed vs. pre-data levels.