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Williams: Our Work Is Not Yet Done

FED
  • NY Fed's Williams speech here helps keep the Fed implied terminal rate close to post CPI highs, currently at 5.28% for the July meeting. Terminal pricing has on balance edged up 1bp since Fedspeak began with Logan at 1100ET after an 8bp jump before then on the CPI report.
  • "We need all the gears turning at the right pace to restore balance between demand and supply in the entire economy. We still have some way to go to achieve that goal. And it will likely entail a period of subdued growth and some softening of labor market conditions," Williams said in remarks prepared for the New York Bankers Association.
  • His unemployment rate prediction is now on the very low of the range of expectations among FOMC officials in December, coming after a blowout January jobs report (forecasting 4-4.5% over next year vs Dec median of 4.6% in both 2023 & 24).
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