Free Trial

Winter TTF Supported by Tight Market Risks as Near Term Falls

NATURAL GAS

Front month TTF prices are declining today amid the ongoing mild start to October limiting the early heating season demand while gas storage is over 95% full but winter tight market concerns remain.

  • Winter pries are still supported with the market vulnerable to winter cold and supply outages despite the warm start. The Q1 2024 premium to the Nov23 contract has recovered from a low on 28 Sep of around 4.6€/MWh up to over 6.5€/MWh today.
  • Gas demand is still well down on pre-crisis levels but EU27+UK demand in Q4 is expected to increase 5.9% year on year to 118.3bcm according to S&P Global. LNG imports to the EU and UK in Q4 are forecast at 36.6bcm, down 8.9% year on year.
  • "Gas prices must stay high enough through winter to sustain LNG deliveries and constrain European demand sufficiently to allow minimal pull on storage," said Tom Purdie at S&P Global.
  • The Win23-Win24 spread has remained relatively unchanged in the last week at around 4.5€/MWh today.
    • TTF NOV 23 down -4.5% at 39.97€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.1% at 46.55€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.6% at 45.55€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.1% at 49.84€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.