With almost all votes counted in the first...>

POLAND: With almost all votes counted in the first round of the presidential

election, it is almost confirmed that a second round run-off between

conservative incumbent President Andrzej Duda and his centre-right liberal

opponent Rafal Trzaskowski will be required on July 12. 

- With 99.78% of the votes counted Duda leads with 43.7% with Trzaskowski in

second place on 30.3%. For Duda, this was short of the 50%+1 required to avoid a

run-off.

- Opinion polls for a hypothetical Duda-Trzaskowski second round show the race

as too close to call. 

- A win for Duda - who is an independent but has support of Law and Justice

gov't - would allow gov't free reign on policy, but if Trzaskowski wins the

right-wing gov't could see some of its more controversial policies blocked by

presidential veto. 

- Duda will be hoping to pick up the votes of far-right candidate Krzysztof

Bosak, who won 6.8% of the vote. Trzaskowski will seek to pick up votes from all

other candidates on the left and centre.