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Won Outperforms Softer CNH & JPY Trends

KRW

The won slightly outperformed the weaker trends evident from CNH and JPY through Monday's session. The 1 month USD/KRW NDF finished the NY session just under 1295. The 50-day EMA is quite close at 1291.70. Note spot onshore ended Monday's session at 1301.40.

  • The won benefited from the better EU/US equity tone, although tech related indices fell. The SOX off by 1.21%, the MSCI IT -0.53%, which was in line with higher core yields.
  • Yesterday, offshore investors sold -$303.4mn of local shares, as the Kospi pulled back -0.24%.
  • Locally today the Finance Ministry will announce the 2024 budget direction. A US aircraft carrier will arrive in Busan port as well, for further military drills with South Korea. Hence North Korean rhetoric/military tests will be eyed.
  • Data released on Monday also showed a slump in construction deals in Q4 (down 18.4% y/y). This occurred during turmoil in onshore credit markets, but still is a potential headwind for Q1 growth (see this link for more details).
  • On the data front we have retail and department store sales for Feb on tap today.
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