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Free AccessWon Slumps On Broader USD Rally Post NFP, Onshore FX Trading Hours To Be Extended
1 month USD/KRW rebounded strongly from multi week lows post the NFP print on Friday. From sub 1319 we got back to 1337/38, before closing a touch below these levels. This was a won loss of 0.68%, so close to broader USD index gains (BBDXY +0.63, DXY +0.85%). Note onshore spot ended Friday at 1322.35, so the early impetus today will be to the topside.
- The won didn't enjoy any benefit from the better US equity tone, with broad based gains, amid economic optimism. In the tech space we saw the SOX rally 1.31%, while the MSCI IT index rose 1.18%. These moves coming despite a +14bps rise in the US 10yr real yield to 1.82%.
- To recap, the Kospi surged nearly 3% on Friday amid broader tech optimism and the authorities vowing to boost equity valuations. Offshore investors added nearly +$1.5bn to local stocks (+$2.6bn for last week).
- We have already had Jan FX reserves data print, falling to $415.76bn from $420.15bn in Dec. Higher USD levels no doubt impacting valuations.
- A reminder that the authorities will kick off a test run of extended onshore won trading hours tomorrow (see this BBG link).
- For the 1 month NDF, upside focus will be on a test above 1340, with Jan highs at 1348.10, which drew a response from the authorities around FX weakness. On the downside the rising 20-+day MA sits back near 1327.
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