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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
By way of contrast, CPB-estimated global trade volume growth accelerated to 0.7% M/M in September (0.4% prior), with both imports (+0.6%) and exports (+0.8%) rising robustly. And it was developed economies that were predominantly boosting trade, with their exports/import volumes up +0.7%/+1.1% respectively (mostly on US and Japanese contributions), vs emerging markets' exports/imports down -0.5%/up +0.8%, respectively.
- Looking at the bigger picture, EM trade has held up relatively well vs DM. While global export volumes are up around 10% from pre-pandemic levels, they are up close to 28% for EM and just 4% for DM.
- More broadly, trade volumes in the chart below reflect the crash during pandemic lockdowns, followed by the resurgence over 2021-22 as supply chains began to reopen and demand for goods remained high.
- Since Q4 2022 though trade volumes have pulled back, as backlogs cleared and global goods demand began to wane. They are now slightly below the longer-term trend.
- That said, even apart from the September uptick in CPB trade figures, there are potential signs of an upturn in global trade growth in the coming months, with some exporters seeing stronger results (eg SKorea), and the Kiel Institute showing a "significant increase" of 2% M/M in global trade in October, based on an evaluation of ship movements.
Source: CPB, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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