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WTI, Brent Hold Ground Despite Ukraine Ceasefire

  • Both WTI and Brent crude futures hold in minor positive territory early Thursday, shrugging off the firmer greenback as well as the general risk-off sentiment seen across equities. Market focus remains on Russia-West tensions, with prices seeing scant relief from the commitment to a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine made at the four-way Normandy talks late yesterday.
  • Focus turns to further discussions to be held between Russia and Ukraine in two weeks' time, which may hold off the risk of near-term aggression. Nonetheless, Western powers continue to send troops and equipment to the borders of eastern Europe.
  • The uptrend in WTI futures has resumed following yesterday's break of resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher or higher highs and higher lows and moving average conditions remain in a bull mode.
  • The rally in gold has stalled. Yesterday's sharp sell-off exposes support at $1805.9, Jan 18 low and the base of the bull channel at $1794.1 - the channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. For now, the move lower is considered corrective, however a break of the channel base will likely alter the picture and highlight a more significant reversal.

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