AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude has edged lower
WTI crude has edged lower from a low of $74.11/bbl yesterday as Washington’s next steps in its maximum pressure campaign on Iran are weighed with other supply uncertainties. OPEC+ is yet to decide on the planned return of production, Iraq is looking to restart Kurdistan oil exports and Ukraine peace negotiations could ease sanctions on Russia.
• The U.S. Treasury department has sanctioned some Iran related oil companies. The list shows 13 new vessels added to the OFAC list along with individuals and terminals related to the trade.
• Iraq/Turkey flows are reported to return in days with supply up to 185kb/d, but Turkey are yet to agree while above Iraq compensation plans damped potential impact for global markets.
• President Trump (when asked) indicated that planned tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which could impact oil supply, are on time and ‘moving along rapidly.’
• US President Donald Trump has issued a statement on Truth Social, following a virtual meeting of G7 leaders, claiming that he is in "serious discussions" with Russian President Vladimir Putin on ending the war in Ukraine.
• Crude oil prices are forecast at $80/bbl at the end of 2Q, 3Q and 4Q, according to UBS cited by Bloomberg.
• US President Trump has pledged easy regulatory approvals to help allow the Keystone XL pipeline development he said via Truth Social on Monday.
• Kpler’s OPEC Lead Amena Bakr said Monday $70$75/bbl could be the US-OPEC compromise range that both would agree to.
• Kpler’s Muyu Xu said their base case for the crude market this year is a supply surplus of 220 kb/d.
• Diesel cracks are softening again after a recovery late yesterday with focus on future demand uncertainty and the seasonal refinery maintenance season.
- WTI APR 25 down 0.3% at 70.47$/bbl
- US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 24.55$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 29.34$/bbl