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WTI Crude is higher on the day following Trump’s Iran comments

AMERICAS OIL
USEnergy BulletsNorth AmericaStoryCommodities

March 17 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude is higher on the day following Trump’s comments directed at Iran as the US increases pressure on Yemen’s Houthis. Further gains came in the afternoon ahead of tomorrow’s Trump-Putin call. China measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption have also supported. Doubts around the US and global economy and rising OPEC+ output from April remain bearish factors.

  • The U.S. will keep hitting Houthi targets until they stop attacking ships the U.S. defense secretary said to Fox News on Sunday. Trump posted on Truth Social saying “every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon as being shot from the weapons and leadership of Iran.”
  • Any maximum pressure tactics by the Trump administration on Iranian oil could have a significant impact on prices according to head of commodity strategy Helima Croft speaking with CNBC. “You’re looking at a $5 to $10/bbl price spike pretty quickly.”
  • The outlook for Russian sanctions is unclear with talks regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine ongoing. US President Trump is due to speak to Russian President Putin on Tuesday.
  • Goldman Sachs has reduced its Brent forecast by $5 to $71/bbl for December 2025, according to Bloomberg. It expects Brent to trade between $65/bbl and $80/bbl and average $68/bbl in 2026.
  • OIES has reduced the Brent forecast by $2.4/bbl to $74.4/bbl for 2025 and by $2/bbl to $72.1/bbl in 2026 due to ongoing tariff-related uncertainty.
  • Motiva’s 626 kb/d Port Arthur, Texas, refinery had a unit process upset on March 15 resulting in flaring.
  • GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan notes that more than two -thirds of US gasoline stations are at $2.99/gal or less today.
  • The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is bearish for heating demand through Mar 30 with no below-normal conditions forecast in the 6–10-day period though the Midwest cools in the 8-14 day period. Depressed heating demand is likely everywhere in days 6-10 but rising in PADD 2 during the 8–14-day period.
  • US cracks were firmer, with diesel reversing some of the significant declines seen last week. Gasoline is extending gains after last week’s large stock draw.
    • WTI Apr futures were up 0.6% at $67.56
    • WTI May futures were up 0.7% at $67.35
    • RBOB Apr futures were up 1.5% at $2.18
    • ULSD Apr futures were up 1.7% at $2.20
    • US gasoline crack up 1$/bbl at 24.01$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1.1$/bbl at 24.94$/bbl
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March 17 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude is higher on the day following Trump’s comments directed at Iran as the US increases pressure on Yemen’s Houthis. Further gains came in the afternoon ahead of tomorrow’s Trump-Putin call. China measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption have also supported. Doubts around the US and global economy and rising OPEC+ output from April remain bearish factors.

  • The U.S. will keep hitting Houthi targets until they stop attacking ships the U.S. defense secretary said to Fox News on Sunday. Trump posted on Truth Social saying “every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon as being shot from the weapons and leadership of Iran.”
  • Any maximum pressure tactics by the Trump administration on Iranian oil could have a significant impact on prices according to head of commodity strategy Helima Croft speaking with CNBC. “You’re looking at a $5 to $10/bbl price spike pretty quickly.”
  • The outlook for Russian sanctions is unclear with talks regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine ongoing. US President Trump is due to speak to Russian President Putin on Tuesday.
  • Goldman Sachs has reduced its Brent forecast by $5 to $71/bbl for December 2025, according to Bloomberg. It expects Brent to trade between $65/bbl and $80/bbl and average $68/bbl in 2026.
  • OIES has reduced the Brent forecast by $2.4/bbl to $74.4/bbl for 2025 and by $2/bbl to $72.1/bbl in 2026 due to ongoing tariff-related uncertainty.
  • Motiva’s 626 kb/d Port Arthur, Texas, refinery had a unit process upset on March 15 resulting in flaring.
  • GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan notes that more than two -thirds of US gasoline stations are at $2.99/gal or less today.
  • The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is bearish for heating demand through Mar 30 with no below-normal conditions forecast in the 6–10-day period though the Midwest cools in the 8-14 day period. Depressed heating demand is likely everywhere in days 6-10 but rising in PADD 2 during the 8–14-day period.
  • US cracks were firmer, with diesel reversing some of the significant declines seen last week. Gasoline is extending gains after last week’s large stock draw.
    • WTI Apr futures were up 0.6% at $67.56
    • WTI May futures were up 0.7% at $67.35
    • RBOB Apr futures were up 1.5% at $2.18
    • ULSD Apr futures were up 1.7% at $2.20
    • US gasoline crack up 1$/bbl at 24.01$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1.1$/bbl at 24.94$/bbl