Free Trial

WTI Pulls Back From Fresh YTD Highs And Gold Reverses CPI Boost

COMMODITIES
  • After briefly pushing on to fresh YTD highs in London trading, crude oil has steadily eased lower both before and after US CPI and OPECs MOMR, with Treasury sell-off and resumption of USD strength in the second half of the NY session adding a further headind.
  • OPEC has kept its world oil demand growth forecast steady at 2.4m b/d for this year and at 2.2m b/d for 2024, in line with last month’s forecast. Non-OPEC liquid supply growth has been revised upwards slightly from July by 100k b/d to 1.5m b/d. Saudi Arabian output declined by 968k b/d last month.
  • The WTI crude second month 25 delta put skew has risen to the least bearish since March with a trend higher in place since mid May. The options market is reflecting the tight market expectations for H2 amid OPEC+ supply cuts and current risks from tensions in the Black Sea.
  • Panama Canal wait times have continued to rise to 21 days as of Aug 8, up from 18 days on Aug 4.
  • WTI is -1.7% at $82.99 back near the low end of yesterday’s range. It keeps resistance at the round $85 after which lies $85.94 (Aug 23, 2022 high), and support at $82.36 (Aug 3 low).
  • Brent is -1.1% at $86.56 with resistance at the intraday high of $88.10 and support at $82.36 (Aug 3 low).
  • Gold is +0.01% at $1914.74 after a short-lived spike to $1930.14 post US CPI. It’s back close to lows of $1913.0 that pushed through yesterday’s $1914.1 to open support at $1902.8 (Jul 6 low)

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.