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WTI Pulls Back From Fresh YTD Highs And Gold Reverses CPI Boost

COMMODITIES
  • After briefly pushing on to fresh YTD highs in London trading, crude oil has steadily eased lower both before and after US CPI and OPECs MOMR, with Treasury sell-off and resumption of USD strength in the second half of the NY session adding a further headind.
  • OPEC has kept its world oil demand growth forecast steady at 2.4m b/d for this year and at 2.2m b/d for 2024, in line with last month’s forecast. Non-OPEC liquid supply growth has been revised upwards slightly from July by 100k b/d to 1.5m b/d. Saudi Arabian output declined by 968k b/d last month.
  • The WTI crude second month 25 delta put skew has risen to the least bearish since March with a trend higher in place since mid May. The options market is reflecting the tight market expectations for H2 amid OPEC+ supply cuts and current risks from tensions in the Black Sea.
  • Panama Canal wait times have continued to rise to 21 days as of Aug 8, up from 18 days on Aug 4.
  • WTI is -1.7% at $82.99 back near the low end of yesterday’s range. It keeps resistance at the round $85 after which lies $85.94 (Aug 23, 2022 high), and support at $82.36 (Aug 3 low).
  • Brent is -1.1% at $86.56 with resistance at the intraday high of $88.10 and support at $82.36 (Aug 3 low).
  • Gold is +0.01% at $1914.74 after a short-lived spike to $1930.14 post US CPI. It’s back close to lows of $1913.0 that pushed through yesterday’s $1914.1 to open support at $1902.8 (Jul 6 low)
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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