Free Trial

Wunsch Comments Hawkish As Expected; Lane Eyed At 1530GMT

STIR

Comments from ECB's Wunsch were unsurprisingly hawkish, and did not promote any persistent feed-through into ECB-dated OIS. Markets now await comments from Chief Economist Lane, who speaks at the Brookings Institution on "Disinflation in the euro area" at 1530GMT/1630CET.

  • Wunsch's comments echoed those he gave in December, pointing to the need to see wages move to a level that's structurally compatible with 2% inflation before embarking on an easing cycle.
  • Rate cut expectations have continued to moderate through the day, with global core FI and the Euribor strip under pressure.
  • There are 121bps of ECB easing priced through 2024 at typing (from 125bps this morning).
  • The Euribor strip is -1.0 to -5.5 ticks through the Blues, with Reds under the most pressure.
  • The sign-up link for Lane's webcast can be found here.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.883-2.5
Apr-243.770-13.8
Jun-243.533-37.6
Jul-243.315-59.3
Sep-243.076-83.2
Oct-242.893-101.6
Dec-242.694-121.4
Jan-252.550-135.8
Source: MNI/Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.