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XpertHR: Pay Awards Lowest Since Sep '22; Survey Indicates Further Falls

UK DATA
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  • XpertHR median basic pay award in the 3 months to the end of February 2024 fell for the second consecutive month to +4.8%Y/Y (vs a revised +5.0%Y/Y prior - originally 5.1%Y/Y) - the lowest level since September 2022.
  • On top of the normal monthly rolling quarter, XpertHR conducted a survey of 213 pay award forecasts for 2024, representing close to a quarter of a million UK employees from 158 organisations in the run-up to the April period. The median pay award forecast for 2024 is 4% with the modal forecast at 5% (with most in the 3-5% range).
  • XpertHR notes that "Close to half (47%) of forecast pay awards are expected to be lower than the 2023 award employees received. Around one-third (34%) are expected to be the same, whilst just 19% are expected to be worth more than the previous settlement."
  • Coupled with the second consecutive in the quarterly rolling data, this points to the start of a more meaningful downward trend for wage data. Last week's official ONS wage data softened a little more than expected.
  • There is still a fair amount of variability in pay awards with lower quartile at +4.0%, and upper quartile at +6.0%. It will be interesting to watch the upper quartile when the NLW is increased by 9.8% in April - and whether that pulls up the median awards, too.
  • Data were collected between 1st December 2023 and 29th February 2024, based on 94 pay settlements covering 181,174 employees.

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  • XpertHR median basic pay award in the 3 months to the end of February 2024 fell for the second consecutive month to +4.8%Y/Y (vs a revised +5.0%Y/Y prior - originally 5.1%Y/Y) - the lowest level since September 2022.
  • On top of the normal monthly rolling quarter, XpertHR conducted a survey of 213 pay award forecasts for 2024, representing close to a quarter of a million UK employees from 158 organisations in the run-up to the April period. The median pay award forecast for 2024 is 4% with the modal forecast at 5% (with most in the 3-5% range).
  • XpertHR notes that "Close to half (47%) of forecast pay awards are expected to be lower than the 2023 award employees received. Around one-third (34%) are expected to be the same, whilst just 19% are expected to be worth more than the previous settlement."
  • Coupled with the second consecutive in the quarterly rolling data, this points to the start of a more meaningful downward trend for wage data. Last week's official ONS wage data softened a little more than expected.
  • There is still a fair amount of variability in pay awards with lower quartile at +4.0%, and upper quartile at +6.0%. It will be interesting to watch the upper quartile when the NLW is increased by 9.8% in April - and whether that pulls up the median awards, too.
  • Data were collected between 1st December 2023 and 29th February 2024, based on 94 pay settlements covering 181,174 employees.