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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK DATA
- XpertHR median basic pay award in the 3 months to the end of February 2024 fell for the second consecutive month to +4.8%Y/Y (vs a revised +5.0%Y/Y prior - originally 5.1%Y/Y) - the lowest level since September 2022.
- On top of the normal monthly rolling quarter, XpertHR conducted a survey of 213 pay award forecasts for 2024, representing close to a quarter of a million UK employees from 158 organisations in the run-up to the April period. The median pay award forecast for 2024 is 4% with the modal forecast at 5% (with most in the 3-5% range).
- XpertHR notes that "Close to half (47%) of forecast pay awards are expected to be lower than the 2023 award employees received. Around one-third (34%) are expected to be the same, whilst just 19% are expected to be worth more than the previous settlement."
- Coupled with the second consecutive in the quarterly rolling data, this points to the start of a more meaningful downward trend for wage data. Last week's official ONS wage data softened a little more than expected.
- There is still a fair amount of variability in pay awards with lower quartile at +4.0%, and upper quartile at +6.0%. It will be interesting to watch the upper quartile when the NLW is increased by 9.8% in April - and whether that pulls up the median awards, too.
- Data were collected between 1st December 2023 and 29th February 2024, based on 94 pay settlements covering 181,174 employees.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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