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Yen Capitulates After Friday's Intervention
The yen is in retreat again after Japanese officials intervened aggressively last Friday to arrest its decline. Spot USD/JPY has added 1.23 figure to last trade at Y148.88, with the yen lagging all its G10 peers.
- The authorities stepped in after hours Friday, taking advantage of thin liquidity, and took action to prop up the yen. The intervention was not officially confirmed, but was flagged in a number of source reports. It may have been to the tune of over $30bn, according to an FT article.
- Fundamentally, the current conditions are skewed towards continued yen depreciation, which raises questions over the sustainability of Japan's policy mix. The BoJ has been adamant to stick with its ultra-loose monetary settings amidst a global wave of tightening. Japan's central bank will review monetary policy this Friday.
- Better risk tone may amplify selling pressure to the yen. U.S. e-minis trade on the front foot, while the Nikkei 225 futures are pointing to a firmer open, after a decent Wall Street session last Friday.
- USD/JPY implied volatilities surged ahead of the weekend, across the curve. One-week tenor was the big gainer, with 1-week/1-month & 1-week/1-year spreads plumbing new four-month lows.
- From a technical viewpoint, eyes are on the multi-decade high printed last Friday at Y151.95. Bears look for losses towards former psychological resistance at Y150.00.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.