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Yen Dip & Weaker Equities Weigh On Asia FX

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly higher. Twin headwinds from a weaker yen (post BOJ) and generally softer equity sentiment, particularly in tech sensitive countries, has weighed today. USD/CNH has maintained very low volatility and by default has outperformed the stronger USD trend. PHP is another outperformer. Still to come today is Q3 Taiwan GDP. Tomorrow, the Caixin manufacturing PMI is out in China, along with South Korean October trade data. Indonesia CPI is also out, along with some PMIs around the region.

  • USD/CNH vol remains very low. The pair last near 7.3280, little changed for the session. The PMI misses earlier weighed on the yuan, but we found selling interest above 7.3300. Onshore and Hong Kong equities have faltered and have continued to weaken after the break, although this hasn't impacted FX sentiment.
  • 1 month USD/KRW tracks near 1349 in recent trade, down from earlier highs near 1351.60. Earlier lows were close to 1344. The weaker equity backdrop (-1.50% for the Kospi), amid a softer regional trend, has weighed. The other headwind has been from the USD/JPY spike post the BOJ. For the won these moves keep us well within recent ranges.
  • The Ringgit has observed narrow ranges this morning, there has been little follow through on moves. The local docket is empty today and the Ringgit looked through the Chinese PMI print. The Malaysian PM Anwar has said in parliament today that there was no reason for benchmark interest rates to increase further. Noting that “We only raise it when the economy demands it. Right now there is no need for that." (BBG). He also said that the Ringgits movements were affected by the US Federal Reserve's actions which is why the medium and long term solution was to decouple from the USD. Anwar said that Malaysia has begun talks with some Arab countries to move towards decoupling from the greenback.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is marginally firmer in early trade this morning and sits a touch off the touch of recent ranges. The measure sits ~0.3% below the top of the band. USD/SGD fell ~0.5% from peak to trough yesterday as wider greenback flows dominated on Monday. The pair found support at the 50-Day EMA ($1.3636) and pared losses. We sit at $1.3670/75 this morning.
  • USD/THB is up sharply from earlier lows, last near 36.09 (highs of 36.135). Earlier lows were at 35.88, which was under the 50-day EMA, which comes in at 36.01. Baht has faltered due to a weaker equity backdrop, the SET is down over 1% at this stage, amid broader regional equity losses (ex Japan). Higher USD/JPY levels are also a factor, with THB typically have a stronger correlation with respect to yen moves compared to some other parts of SEA FX. Thailand IP for Sep was slightly weaker than expected. Still to come is Sep trade data.
  • Philippines markets have returned from yesterday's holiday. USD/PHP sits lower at 56.81, around 0.25% stronger in PHP terms versus Friday closing levels from the end of last week. This keeps us within well worn ranges of recent months in the 56.50-57.00 region. Note we ended last Friday at 56.96.

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