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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessKey Inter-Meeting Fed Speak – Dec 2024
US TREASURY AUCTION CALENDAR: Avg 3Y Sale
Yields Continue to Decline, Strong 5Y Sale
- Treasury futures holding near late session highs after the close. Early impetus from Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-11 vs. -3 est, -5 prior) and Business Conditions (0.0 vs. -9 prior) lowest reading since April after three monthly declines helped get the ball rolling.
- Tsys continued to advance after decent $58B 5Y Tsy Note sale traded through (3.801% high yield vs. 3.812% WI, 2.50x bid-to-cover) with 10Y yields falling to 3.7833% - lowest level since mid July.
- After March'24 10Y futures climbed to an intraday high of 113-11.5, focus turned to 113-12+ a Fibonacci projection point: 1.764 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing.
- Projected rate cuts for early 2024 gains momentum on the rally: January 2024 cumulative -4.5bp at 5.283%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -83.9% vs. -80.5% this morning w/ cumulative of -25.5bp at 5.073%, May 2024 pricing in a full 25bp cut with cumulative -52.4bp at 4.804%, June'24 cumulative -78.8bp at 4.539%. Fed terminal at 5.325% in Jan'24.
- Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Retail/Wholesale Inventories and Home Sales. US Treasury supply wraps up 2023 with $80B 4W and 8W Bill auctions at 1130ET, $40B 7Y Note auction (91282CJQ5) at 1300ET.
- No scheduled Fed speakers; Congress closed for the holidays.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.