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Yields Higher Despite Headline Jobs Miss

US TSYS
Headline Dec jobs figure way off the mark (+199k vs. +445k est), the reaction not what you would expect as Tsys traded weaker until late morning.
  • Tsy futures traded weaker after Dec jobs gain of +199k missed a +447k estimate -- weak yes, but focus quickly turned to solid underlying data: household survey gain +650k, hourly earnings +4.7% YoY, unemployment drop to 3.9%, not to mention the Nov (modest) up-revision to +249k from +210k.
  • Tsys bottomed out by late morning, 30YY hit 2.1432%H, 10YY 1.7992%, recovering near half the move/near midrange by the bell.
  • Decent session volumes (TYH2>1.65M) amid otherwise quite late trade. Rates mostly weaker, curves steeper with short end outperforming (heavy TUH volume >445k), long end near middle session range.
  • Two-way flow w/better buyers in short end long end since midday as accts look to next week's data: CPI (0.4% vs. 0.8% prior), PPI (final demand MoM 0.4% vs. 0.8% prior) and Retail Sales (+0.0% est vs. 0.3% prior).
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.8641%, 5-Yr is up 2.8bps at 1.497%, 10-Yr is up 4.4bps at 1.7655%, and 30-Yr is up 3.7bps at 2.1123%.
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