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Yields Inch Higher Ahead Key Employment Data Friday

US TSYS
Yields inched higher, curves bear flattening (5s30s -5.00 at 61.21) for second consecutive session in the lead-up to headline December employment data Friday.
  • Median estimate for December job gains climbed +42k to +442k after the release of more hawkish than anticipated minutes from Dec FOMC yesterday; not to mention Wed's ADP private jobs overshoot of +807k vs. +410k est).
  • Best volumes in weeks (TYH2 >1.6M) amid two-way positioning ahead Fri's jobs data, curves flatter/short end weighed with StL Fed Bullard saying liftoff could occur as early as March and potentially allow for some balance sheet runoff later in response to an inflation surge late last year.
  • Incidentally, little react to modest gain in weekly claims (207k vs. 195k est).
  • Decent option hedging rate hikes via put structures in March, June and Sep reported. Flipside: longer expirys looking for policy overshoot/potential rate cut in 2023) +25,000 Red Mar'23 99.75 calls, 2.5 (open interest over 313k).
  • No coupon sales Friday, but NY Fed buy-op scheduled: Tsy 0Y-2.25Y, appr $9.325B.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 5.4bps at 0.8796%, 5-Yr is up 4.6bps at 1.4753%, 10-Yr is up 2.3bps at 1.7281%, and 30-Yr is down 0.7bps at 2.0874%.
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