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Some Relief Ahead Of Week-End Data

US TSYS SUMMARY

We've come well off Thursday's yield highs but the tone overnight has been more of tentative stability in Treasuries than a full-on recovery.

  • A drop of ~13bps from the previous session's spike high in 10Yr Tsys, but we're still 10+bps above Wednesday's close. Stock futs a bit off overnight lows, dollar up sharply.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 2.2bps at 0.1505%, 5-Yr is down 5.2bps at 0.7682%, 10-Yr is down 4.8bps at 1.4719%, and 30-Yr is down 2.5bps at 2.2484%.
  • Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) up 7/32 at 132-25.5 (L: 132-08 / H: 133-05.5)
  • Overnight analyst commentary assessing Thursday's market moves points to multiple factors, from Fed nonchalance to supply to convexity to SLR exemption expiry.
  • In data: 0830ET sees Jan personal income/spending incl PCE deflator, prelim wholesale inventories, and advance goods trade; 0945ET is Feb MNI Chicago PMI, followed by 1000ET's final Feb UMichigan sentiment.
  • House debates and votes today on the COVID relief package, vote could come very late tonight.
  • No supply today (perhaps mercifully after Thursday's 7-Yr auction debacle). NY Fed buys ~$12.825B of 0Y-2.25Y Tsys.

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