© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI BRIEF: US Bank Deposits Fell USD98B Week Of SVB Collapse

MNI BRIEF: Data Not Justifying ECB Hike Beyond Expectations

MNI: FED'S BULLARD RAISES PEAK FED FUNDS RATE FORECAST TO 5.6%

MNI DATA FORECASTS: EZ Inflation data in focus

BNB Business Sentiment Boosted by Strong Services Demand

MNI: BELGIUM MAR BNB BUSINESS SURVEY -7.6

MNI BRIEF: Yellen Says Americans' Deposits Are Safe

MNI BRIEF: Italy ESM Ratification Framed In EU’s Fiscal Debate

MNI: Freeland-Banks Well Capitalized, Budget To Focus Stimulus

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Trending Top 5
Market News Topics

Yields Tumble With Average Earnings, ISM Services Misses

US TSYS
BulletMarketsFixed Income NewsHomepage
  • Cash Tsys have swung from modest cheapening through 2-10Y tenors at the start of the US session to a substantial rally. The latter sees front end to belly yields currently down 21-22.5bps after notably weaker than expected average hourly earnings growth (offset somewhat by a new recent low for the u/e rate) before a significant miss for ISM Services as new orders cratered.
  • US CPI on Jan 12 will most likely still be pivotal but for now, the market leans more heavily towards a 25bp hike from the FOMC on Feb 1 with 32bp priced vs 36-37bp prior to the data and the implied terminal cut 10bps to 4.95% for June (cumulative 62bps of hikes).
  • Further along the curve, still significant rallies of 15bp for the 10Y (led by lower real yields, in turn pushing risk assets materially higher) have limited the steepening in 2s10s to just +5.5bps at -68bps, within yesterday's range. .
  • TYH3 climbs to session highs of 114-09+ (+1-09) on very high volumes currently at 1.85M. It's easily through resistance at 113-15+ (Dec 23 high) to next eye 114-17 (76.4% retrace of Dec 13 – 30 bear leg).
  • Looking to next week, Powell talking twice on Tue (Jan 10) at the Riksbank event will be firmly in focus, all with an eye on CPI on Thu (Jan 12).
220 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Cash Tsys have swung from modest cheapening through 2-10Y tenors at the start of the US session to a substantial rally. The latter sees front end to belly yields currently down 21-22.5bps after notably weaker than expected average hourly earnings growth (offset somewhat by a new recent low for the u/e rate) before a significant miss for ISM Services as new orders cratered.
  • US CPI on Jan 12 will most likely still be pivotal but for now, the market leans more heavily towards a 25bp hike from the FOMC on Feb 1 with 32bp priced vs 36-37bp prior to the data and the implied terminal cut 10bps to 4.95% for June (cumulative 62bps of hikes).
  • Further along the curve, still significant rallies of 15bp for the 10Y (led by lower real yields, in turn pushing risk assets materially higher) have limited the steepening in 2s10s to just +5.5bps at -68bps, within yesterday's range. .
  • TYH3 climbs to session highs of 114-09+ (+1-09) on very high volumes currently at 1.85M. It's easily through resistance at 113-15+ (Dec 23 high) to next eye 114-17 (76.4% retrace of Dec 13 – 30 bear leg).
  • Looking to next week, Powell talking twice on Tue (Jan 10) at the Riksbank event will be firmly in focus, all with an eye on CPI on Thu (Jan 12).