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Ylds Climb After Mixed Data: Lower Claims/Weaker GDP, Weak 7Y Sale

US TSYS
Treasury futures hold weaker levels on heavy volumes by the close Thursday, just off second half lows of the day with curves mixed after more broad based flattening in first half (5s30s dropped to 73.349, Mar 2020 low).
  • Focus on data after ECB kept refi/deposit/lending rates unchanged. Tsys held weaker/inside overnight range after better than exp wkly/continuing claims (281k vs. 288k est; 2.243m vs. 2.420m est) while first look at 3Q GDP came out weaker than est: 2.0% vs. 2.6%.
  • Robust volumes amid two-way in 2s-7s, carry-over buying in long end from bank and insurance portfolios. More steepener stop-outs for leveraged accts.
  • Rates whipsawed midmorning: following Bund lead -- Tsys surged to session highs briefly only to extend session lows less than an hour later after ECB Lagarde press brief. Lagarde pushed somewhat back on market rate hike pricing, calling it inconsistent with ECB fwd guidance/infl forecasts, though "not for her to say" if markets had got ahead of themselves.
  • Tsy futures back near lows after mediocre $62B 7Y note auction (91282CDF5) drew 1.461% high yield vs. 1.447% WI; 2.25x bid-to-cover in-line with Sep's 2.24x. Indirect take-up climbs to 63.89% (highest since Jan).
  • Still no vote on bill, draft of Pres Biden's $1.75T social spending package leaked: Link: HR 5376
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 0.497%, 5-Yr is up 3.6bps at 1.1864%, 10-Yr is up 2.5bps at 1.5659%, and 30-Yr is up 1bps at 1.9603%.
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