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Yuan Strengthens After Data

CNH

Yuan strengthens further after Chinese industrial profits data, the figure rose 20.1% in December compared to 15.5% in November, overall industrial profit rose 4.1% in 2020. The December figure denotes the second highest rise in over 2 years.

  • USD/CNH last down 23 pips at 6.4704, having briefly dropped as low at 6.4669. The rate broke the lower bound of the channel downtrend from the 2021 low at 6.4691, but has since retraced. Next support is at 6.4660 the lower bound of the channel downtrend from Jan 22. More significant support remains at 6.44 which is seen as line in the sand for the PBOC, the level was challenged and rejected firmly on Jan 13.
  • CNH forward points have risen in January, 1-week fwd points last at 35.00 from lows of 7.48 on Jan 8, this has added another downside narrative to USD/CNH alongside weaker greenback and tightening talk from China. USD/CNH has not closed above 6.50, previously said to be psychological level for the PBOC since Dec. 31.


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