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EMERGING MARKETS: ZAR finds some much-needed support
-After a particularly poor few sessions, ZAR found some much-needed support
Wednesday as the ANC outlined key infrastructure spending plans, with a number
of key economic reforms also agreed upon by the current government. The blip
higher in ZAR did little to reverse the recent upward USD/ZAR trend, with the
week's lows at 15.1217 still in tact.
-Should the ruling go against Polish banks, the ECJ could force loan conversions
from CHF to PLN at rates below current values while retaining interest payments
linked to CHF money market rates and not the more punitive PLN rates. Reports
suggest the fines could total as much as PLN 60bln (EUR 14bln) which, in a worst
case scenario, analysts see EUR/PLN being driven back to levels not seen since
2016. That year, EUR/PLN topped out at 4.5391.
-Timing of the ECJ's decision is unclear, but local sources suggest the
judgement could be at around 0830BST/0930CET. The earlier opinion issued in May
went against Polish banks, so markets expect a similar result Thursday, with the
severity of the punishment the primary focus.