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Zloty Continues To Weaken, Lags All EMEA Peers

PLN

EUR/PLN has turned bid today and last trades +347 pips at 4.4602, as risk aversion continues to sap strength from EM FX space. The rate is getting close to its 50-EMA, which kicks in at 4.4646.

  • POLGB yields sit 5.1-6.3bp lower across the curve, with local FRA contracts coming under light pressure. The WIG20 Index has shed ~1.7%, approaching support from its 50-DMA.
  • Commerzbank suggested that the zloty may weaken into next year as "Poland's central bank is getting ready for its first rate cut in September," despite "fears about inflation staying above-target in the long-term," which are "escalating, worldwide." They expect the zloty to weaken to 4.75 versus the euro by the end of 2024.
  • Multiple local media outlets reported that President Andrzej Duda is ready to call parliamentary elections for October 15, with the official announcement yet to come.
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