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Zloty Loses Ground, NBP Meeting Outcome Eyed Tomorrow

PLN

EUR/PLN has pierced the 100-DMA and printed its best levels in three weeks at 4.4954 and last changes hands +173 pips on the day at 4.4879. Topside technical focus falls on Jul 6 high of 4.5040 and clearance of that level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Note that several local sell-side desks flagged expectations that EUR/PLN will continue its sideways trend for now.

  • PLN/CZK has shed 129 pips and sits at 5.3842, staying within its short-term horizontal trend. From a technical perspective, a dip through Aug 18 low of 5.3558 would flag potential for a continued sell-off. Conversely, bulls eye resistance from Aug 7 high/psychologically significant figure of 5.4925/5.5000.
  • The key near-term risk for the zloty is provided by tomorrow's NBP rate decision, which will be between a hold and a 25bp cut. Consensus/market pricing are leaning towards the latter scenario, even as inflation remained stuck in double digits in August.
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