Zloty Loses Ground, NBP Speak Under Microscope

EUR/PLN trades +145 pips at PLN4.6962, with familiar technical levels in play, as participants digest the recent rounds of NBP speak. USD/PLN deals +234 pips at PLN4.4592, with bulls setting heir sights on the 200-DMA at PLN4.5570.

• The three hawkish dissenters from the NBP's Monetary Policy Committee speak today. Przemyslaw Litwiniuk told Gazeta Wyborcza that Poland still has "strong" arguments in favour of tightening monetary policy, while Ludwik Kotecki told Parkiet that it's "way too early" to discuss interest rate hikes and estimated the optimal magnitude of hikes at more than 25bp but less than 100bp. Joanna Tyrowicz is set to be interviewed by Biznes24 within an hour. To the best of our knowledge, other MPC members have been silent since Governor Glapinski's post-MPC press conference.
• The market is taking any hawkish comments with a pinch of salt. FRA 12x15 contracts still imply expectations of rate cuts by end-2023. POLGB bond yields have now trimmed the bulk of earlier losses, but this recovery has been facilitated by a parallel upswing in global bond yields.