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PLN: Zloty Tad Firmer With Few Fresh Catalysts

PLN
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EUR/PLN oscillates around familiar levels, with bears setting their sights on the psychologically significant 4.15 figure. The pair last deals at 4.1629 and a breach of 4.15 would support the bearish case. Meanwhile, the RSI (28.0) remains in oversold territory and bulls look for a rebound towards the 50-EMA at 4.2321.

  • The zloty remains supported by restrictive monetary policy at home and the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but there seems to be little potential for any major developments on each of these fronts today.
    • ING write this morning that questions surrounding US military commitment to European security undermine confidence in the credibility of NATO guarantees, which increases geopolitical risk premium in the CEE space. As a result, the scope for a test of 4.15 by EUR/PLN is limited and a correction cannot be ruled out.
    • Otherwise, local desks point to the US holiday and light economic calendar as factors reducing the odds of any meaningful moves in the zloty exchange rate today.
  • POLGBs have weakened across the curve. The WIG Index and WIG20 Index have added 0.6% each, with bulls eyeing a fresh challenge to recent highs.
  • Looking ahead, Statistics Poland will publish a batch of high-frequency economic activity indicators for January on Thursday.
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EUR/PLN oscillates around familiar levels, with bears setting their sights on the psychologically significant 4.15 figure. The pair last deals at 4.1629 and a breach of 4.15 would support the bearish case. Meanwhile, the RSI (28.0) remains in oversold territory and bulls look for a rebound towards the 50-EMA at 4.2321.

  • The zloty remains supported by restrictive monetary policy at home and the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but there seems to be little potential for any major developments on each of these fronts today.
    • ING write this morning that questions surrounding US military commitment to European security undermine confidence in the credibility of NATO guarantees, which increases geopolitical risk premium in the CEE space. As a result, the scope for a test of 4.15 by EUR/PLN is limited and a correction cannot be ruled out.
    • Otherwise, local desks point to the US holiday and light economic calendar as factors reducing the odds of any meaningful moves in the zloty exchange rate today.
  • POLGBs have weakened across the curve. The WIG Index and WIG20 Index have added 0.6% each, with bulls eyeing a fresh challenge to recent highs.
  • Looking ahead, Statistics Poland will publish a batch of high-frequency economic activity indicators for January on Thursday.